Nah COVID-19 happened. When they announced their initial partnership in February, they said LAX would complement SEA, so they both should’ve grown alongside each other.
“Beginning West Coast international service from Seattle will complement American’s strong existing international network from LAX,”
That’s possible, but PEK and PVG will be tricky. Years ago AA fought Delta hard for the LAX-PEK slot. Now they just straight up dropped LAX-PEK and didn’t even request a dormancy waiver.
United/Delta may go for this open PEK slot just to secure it for the future. Both of them already requested to take over AA’s old ORD-PVG slot with United applying for a second daily EWR-PVG and Delta applying for MSP-PVG.
I wouldn’t be surprised if AA completely drops China from LAX (for 10+ years) and eventually shifts LAX-PEK/HKG to Seattle in the future. There’s also potential in a few years for China Southern to launch PKX-LAX and AA slaps their passengers onto that flight.
LAX will probably become an Oceanic gateway, with both Sydney and Auckland still set to resume in 2021. LAX to Christchurch is currently in limbo and may inaugurate in winter 2021, but that’s doubtful, unless they’re mandated to launch it…
In terms of long-haul, AA actually still offers the largest capacity at LAX even after dropping these 5 routes.
Taken from Forbes:
But for overall international capacity, Delta remains the largest thanks to its short-haul international flights.
Overall, the future of AA at SEA is gonna be really fun. I could see them or JAL try to kick Delta out of routes like Seattle to Osaka.
But the more they expand, the more they’d have to shift their network. Currently the Seattle to Bangalore flight with the 787-9 originates and terminates in Los Angeles, and Shanghai will likely do the same.
I’m personally betting on AA launching Seattle to Doha, Beijing, Hong Kong, Manila (if PAL doesn’t gain authority), and Sydney (unless Qantas does it).