Think the problem with the A380 is it was not designed to be a cargo plane incase supersonic flight took over. This means that even if airlines stop buying 747 and 380 for passengers at the same time, the 747 may be used by cargo companies which will give the 747 and overall the upperhand. However the 747 has been used for so much longer it is much more trusted and airlines will continue to use it. I do see the 747 stopping passenger production in the 2020’s but I’m not sure when a better cargo plane will be used. However I can’t see the 747 cease production immediately as it still is the most efficient, fastest best looking commercial aircraft in the sky.
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A380+, regardless of the new winglets, and additional 80 seats because of the new configuration, is still an A380. So, it still has the same problems that have plagued the A380 since it was first introduced. The A350, A330NEO, 787, and 777X are much more efficient, and capable aircraft, which is why all 4 of them combined have 2,000+ orders vs 300 orders (Emirates certainly carries the A380 order book)
The A380+ is a stop gap measure to close the production gap to a possible future A380NEO. Airbus has been doing the A380NEO research, but so far, no real announcements, and there probably won’t be for at least another couple of years.
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There’s no doubt that IF they announce a NEO, the A380 will finally be competitive.
What? Why are we talking about supersonic flight now?
The A380 was originally designed as a high capacity passenger plane, to combat the problem of increased congestion at busy airports, by increasing capacity, and reducing frequency, and thus freeing up slots. The A380F was an afterthought, unlike the 747, and even then, only 10 of the type were ever ordered, and the program was canceled. That however is not the reason why the A380 failed.
From the beginning, the A380 was already dead, it was a 1990’s design that became a reality by 2006, at which point the 777-300ER was selling like hotcakes, and both Boeing and Airbus were underway with the 787 and A350.
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The 2707 and the Concorde were assumed to takeover the 747 and subsonic flight would be a thing of the past. The 747 was therefore made to be a cargo plane as well for when no one wanted big slow (who’s slow now?) aircraft. The A380 did not have this competiton so this gives the 747 an upperhand. Thats why I was talking about supersonic flight, cause planes like the 2707 were meant to make a 747 a thing of the past.
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Also please remember! Don’t turn this into Airbus vs Boeing!
Great ideas @CaptainDoomBox here are some of my thoughts.
I am willing to bet my left arm that Airbus won’t be signing any sales contracts for the A380+ for anything more than USD225 million apiece. Airbus wants sales to keep the line going, they will do anything. Boeing’s latest 777-300ERs are rolling off the line and sold for around USD105-125 million each.
Actually, the A380 doesn’t burn that much fuel. Her 4 engines burn around 12,500 KG/hr, a 4 percent reduction means a reduction of 500KG per hour to 12000 KG/hr.
Since you like 777s that much, let’s do a little comparison then.
The 777-300ER burns 8,300 KG of fuel per hour, while the A380 burns 12,000 KG. So you might believe that the 777-300ER is much better in every way. Right? Let’s take a look.
Flight SQ306 (B777-300ER) went from Singapore and London in 12 hours and 55 minutes on July 23, 2017.
Flight SQ308 (A380-800) went from Singapore and London in 13 hours and 11 minutes on July 23, 2017.
The 777-300ER burned approximately 107.25 tonnes of fuel while the A380 burned approximately 164.81 tonnes of fuel. In dollar terms, that’s about USD56,000 and USD86,100 respectively.
Things are looking great for the 777-300ER, but when you get to the revenue side, things get quite interesting.
The A380 can much more premium passengers compared to the 777-300ER. That means much greater revenue potential. I did the math and calculated that the A380 can actually generate about USD$175,000 in additional revenue compared to the 777-300ER.
Now, is the A380+ going to flop? Most likely. Will the A380+ flop because it has 4 engines? No, it will flop because there is no demand for larger passenger jets because Oil money has dried up, bankers are moving to teleconferencing, and an overall decrease in premium demand by corporate belt-tightening and conspicuous consumption falling out of style. Don’t blame the engines, blame world events re-shaping air travel.
Sources:
SeatGuru
FlightRadar24
GDS information
Fuel burn from trusted unnamed sources
Assumptions:
JetA cost: USD 0.6/L
JetA density: 840KG/m^3
First Class Fare: USD4500
Business Class Fare: USD2750
Premium Economy Fare: USD625
Economy Fare: USD475
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It would be extremely difficult to have a double decker cargo aircraft for many reasons:
- The cargo would have to be light or the aircraft would exceed MTWO/MLW very easily unless you can fit the thing with GE90s.
- To get cargo from the second deck would require A: a stronger exterior lift which would cost more to develop or B: a onboard lift which would weight a ton and rack up fuel costs.
- According to an article I will link below, the A380F will only be able to carry 60% more volume but only 28% more weight than the 744F.
- Lastly, it doesn’t seem reasonable because no freighter route I can think of could possibly require that much cargo capacity that the A380F offers and if you can’t fill the A380F it is more economical to just take the 747-8F.
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Try 12 hours on a photography guide :)
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Looks like you put a lot of effort in it! Maybe do some plane spotting on Roblox too lol
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Bahaha, maybe even spot the A380 and 747 while we can lol.
As global middle class grows (it is expected to massively rise in Asia and long term in africa) demand will increase alot i think the a380 will have a revival soon or one day
Oh yes that reminds me! A380+ is set to be a massive hit from China’s perspective but that’s what China thinks and they are most likely to hold the biggest fleet of those. As I said, that’s what China said…
At the rate of how 747-8F orders are going. I would give until at least 2025 before 747-8F production ends. Mainly because every time right as Boeing is about to cease production on the 747-8 (as shown late last year when ups ordered theirs) another cargo airline comes along and places a decent sized order thus keeping production alive. But with production at about 1 1/4 a year that could keep assembly alive until about 2030
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I would love to know how much Emirates are paying for their A380s right now.
Emirates could be considered the only realistic lifeline for the A380s survival.
If they order another 50, that keeps the line rolling a while longer and gives the market more time to come up to the A380s seating range.
I wouldn’t place my bets on an overnight resurgence though.
A380 - technical marvel, management calamity, economic disaster.
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Airbus better start blessing up for orders… sooner or later there will be orders and they might be high or they might be low. We are trying to play mind games with the future right here ;)
I totally agree with everything you said there!
Don’t worry guys, I’ll personally order 100 of each aircraft. Both companies shall profit !!!
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Yeah just a couple of billion dollars there, maybe pushing near a trillion ha ha
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