Aeroflot Group - the biggest airline in Russia and CIS - recently announced it’s strategy until 2028. Also with it, came a leak of slides from confidential presentation, which shows even more details about upcoming changes.
Here is a quick review of what is coming.
30/30 strategy
In the next 8 years, Aeroflot group wants to increase it’s passenger numbers by 30 million, while decreasing the average price of an economy ticket by 30%
Aeroflot
Aeroflot will focus on becoming even more premium and getting the magical Skytrax 5 stars rating. It will get rid of russian jets and focus on the medium to long haul market. The end goal is to fly around 35-40 million passengers a year. It will focus on 2 cities - Moscow, specifically Sheremetvo, which has been it’s hub from the start, and announced 2 tears ago Krasnoyarsk hub. The second one because of it’s geographic position, should become a transfer point between flights from Europe and Asia.
Possible future fleet:
| Airplane | Amount |
|---|---|
| Airbus A350-900/-1000 | 81 |
| Airbus A320NEO | 19 |
| Airbus A321NEO | 75 |
Pobeda
Pobeda is aeroflot’s lowcoster airline, which will see drastic fleet changes, with the amount of airplanes growing by more than 400%. They will accumulate all of Aeroflot group’s 737-800, however since 2025 some of them will end their service with Aeroflot and be replaced by either 737-8 or A321NEO. Citing the rapid growth of the percentage of planes with capacity over 220 passengers in WizzAir and Air Asia fleets, Pobeda views A321NEO as it’s future and a way to make flights even cheaper.
Aeroflot’s vision for fleet development:
| Airplane | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boeing 737-800 | 34 | 40 | 62 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 67 | 55 | 41 |
| Boeing 737-8 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Airbus A321NEO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 35 | 59 | 79 | 97 | 113 |
On top of that fleet growth, Pobeda is expected to start codesharing with other Aeroflot group airlines - something not regularly done by lowcosters. In 8 years, Pobeda is aiming at 55-65 million passengers every year, but their expected distribution hints at a, at least partial, hub change. 15 to 30 people are expected to fly to/from Moscow Sheremetevo on Pobeda’s flights - a ridiculous chunk of their passengers considering that they are currently not operating there. Moreover, 25 to 35 are expected to use Moscow Vnukovo or Moscow Domodedovo, an interesting line considering the next paragraph that traffic distribution will be based on commercial agreements with airports and occupancy. With the Vnukovo airport already loosing all Rossiya flights except for some to Saint Petersburg, a further move out by Aeroflot might leave airport without a big chunk of it’s passengers.
Rossiya
Rossiya airlines should become a zero margin airline operating flights all around Russia, both major and essential. In 2028, it’s fleet should consist of mostly russian-made aircraft. The amount of regional bases should grow substantially, with 8 new regional bases opening and 3 extra potential regional bases appearing on the map, stretching from Krasnodar in the East to Simferopol¹ and Kaliningrad in the west. Rossiya will completely take over the flat-rate flights to far east from Aeroflot, as well as flat-rate flights to Simferopol and Kaliningrad.
| Flights | 2019 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|
| Saint Petersburg | Airbus A319 - 21 Airbus A320 - 6 |
SSJ100 - 55 MC21 - 30 |
| Moscow and Regional bases |
B738 - 7 | SSJ100 - 95 MC21 - 55 |
| Far East | Boeing 777-300 - 10 Boeing 747-400 - 1 |
Boeing 777-300 - 15 |
| Tourist | Boeing 737-800 - 9 Boeing 747-400 - 8 |
Will be decided later |
As you can see, the fleet will be filled with russian-built airplanes. But what about the Tourist flights? It is said in the presentation that considering the high volatility of the tourist market, the recent little accident and some contract until 2022, the decision on it will be made later.
Aurora
Aurora is Aeroflot’s far eastern regional airline and, as it turns out, almost nothing was said about it. The only thing with it at the moment is Aeroflot’s offer to sell it’s majority stake of 51% to the government of Sakhalin region, which already owns the other 49%.
Conclusion
With the recent expansion of Sheremetevo, Aeroflot Group moved Rossiya from Vnukovo to the new terminals, but with it came the realization that Aeroflot and Rossiya were essentially pretty much the same. After a little mr worldwide class oopsie, Aeroflot clearly wants to offer all kinds of service classes - lowcoster (Pobeda), ok (Rossiya) and premium (Aeroflot). The only question now is where will Pobeda go in Sheremetevo?
1 - good catch! Simferopol and Crimea in general is a really interesting topic to not argue about here.
Sources:
Aeroflot
Rossiya
Pobeda & fleet
Aurora’s 51% offering